Should Australians fear North Korea's nuclear threat?
Author: Brett McLeod
Original article:
[Sydney, Australia] They are words which certainly get attention: "If Australia persists...this will be a suicidal act of coming within range of a nuclear strike of the strategic force of North Korea."
The threat of nuclear attack is not to be taken lightly. But how seriously should North Korea’s threat to Australia be taken?
First the DPRK would need a missile capable of travelling the more than 7000 kilometres to Australia. Secondly, they need a nuclear payload that can fit on that rocket.
The longest range missile Pyongyang has tested so far is the Musudan, capable of travelling between 2500 to 3500 kilometres. Currently in development is the KN class missiles, which would travel more than 10,000 kilometres.
A KN missile was on display at last weekend’s military parade. However, many experts say it was probably a fake. The North has yet to show it has an InterContinental Ballistic Missile that works.
There is no doubt North Korea has nuclear weapons. They have been developing them since 1970, and has detonated five nuclear bombs so far. Estimates vary but the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security says Kim Jong-Un could have 20 or more nuclear devices.
However, there is a big difference between setting off a nuclear explosion underground and having a weapon capable of being miniaturised enough to fit on a missile. North Korea claims they have that capability, saying through its news agency last year its nuclear weapons had been "standardized to be able to be mounted on strategic ballistic rockets".
There is no evidence to back up that claim.
And it’s worth noting that while this is the first time Pyongyang has made a direct nuclear threat against Australia, it has been doing so against other countries for decades. It threatened to turn South Korea into a “sea of fire” last year. And the year before. And the year before that. And going back to the 90’s. And, it still hasn't.
So, without proven long range missiles that can carry a nuclear bomb, nothing to worry about for Australia right?
Yes - but that may change. The regime of Kim Jong-Un is hell-bent on improving its nuclear capability, its only real bargaining chip against the outside world. Dennis Wilder, former special assistant to George W Bush believes the North could have a long-range InterContinental Ballistic Missile within four years.
Still, whatever threat Australia, or the U.S. or Japan faces, it pales compared to the one South Korea has been living with for decades.
